Futuríveis
sexta-feira, dezembro 10, 2004
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Weak demand in the eurozone baffles economists
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After a relatively strong first six months this year, growth in the 12-country eurozone has slowed sharply. Gross domestic product rose by just 0.3 per cent in the three months to September compared with the previous three months, as export growth slowed and household spending remained flat. The ECB has backed away from its earlier forecast of an acceleration in activity at the start of next year and on Thursday revised downwards its forecast for 2005, blaming the impact of higher oil prices on growth. Private sector economists have followed its example, reducing projections for growth in coming quarters - and adding the strength of the euro against the dollar to the list of the eurozone's economic woes.
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While consumer spending seems to have staged a slight recovery in Germany and France, the eurozone's two largest economies, this quarter, other data point to slowing growth in output. In November, the purchasing managers' indices for eurozone manufacturing and service sectors - regarded as leading indicators of likely output trends - showed manufacturing growth slowing sharply, with services not far behind. If the indicators are correct, manufacturing output is already contracting in Germany and Italy.
...
So why is the outlook for the eurozone economy so gloomy? Higher oil prices are one reason and the euro's strength has, at the very least, acted as a brake on export growth. At the same time, eurozone economies have not enjoyed the fiscal stimulus seen in the US.
But there are more fundamental reasons behind the eurozone's malaise. Strong growth in exports has not fed through into domestic demand in the way that would have been expected from the experience of previous cycles. Capital spending has grown modestly but consumer spending has barely moved, rising by just 0.2 per cent in both the second and third quarters.
Michael Dicks, economist at Lehman Brothers, says that traditional economic models for forecasting consumer behaviour have broken down: they no longer explain why so much is being saved rather than spent. His explanation is that the eurozone - especially Germany - is suffering the short-term side effects of the push towards structural reforms by governments and restructuring by companies, both with the aim of boosting longer term labour flexibility and international competitiveness.
Mr Dicks warns that the increase in "precautionary savings" by eurozone consumers "might become a permanent phenomenon if the authorities are seen reneging on the social contract and no longer deliver the sort of services that people have come to expect from the welfare state". John Lipsky, chief economist at JP Morgan, argues that the "corporate adjustment process" was much more "brusque" in the US, and was largely completed by the end of 2002. "In the eurozone, the corporate adjustment has not yet been completed."
...
The ECB is forecasting a “gradual recovery” in eurozone growth over the next two years. Mr Issing expects private consumption to pick up in line with real disposable incomes. Unemployment has stabilised and wages have increased moderately, he says. “This is all very modest but we would expect that the labour market would improve slowly. Our projections are based on this kind of scenario - not something spectacular.”
Financial Times
...
After a relatively strong first six months this year, growth in the 12-country eurozone has slowed sharply. Gross domestic product rose by just 0.3 per cent in the three months to September compared with the previous three months, as export growth slowed and household spending remained flat. The ECB has backed away from its earlier forecast of an acceleration in activity at the start of next year and on Thursday revised downwards its forecast for 2005, blaming the impact of higher oil prices on growth. Private sector economists have followed its example, reducing projections for growth in coming quarters - and adding the strength of the euro against the dollar to the list of the eurozone's economic woes.
...
While consumer spending seems to have staged a slight recovery in Germany and France, the eurozone's two largest economies, this quarter, other data point to slowing growth in output. In November, the purchasing managers' indices for eurozone manufacturing and service sectors - regarded as leading indicators of likely output trends - showed manufacturing growth slowing sharply, with services not far behind. If the indicators are correct, manufacturing output is already contracting in Germany and Italy.
...
So why is the outlook for the eurozone economy so gloomy? Higher oil prices are one reason and the euro's strength has, at the very least, acted as a brake on export growth. At the same time, eurozone economies have not enjoyed the fiscal stimulus seen in the US.
But there are more fundamental reasons behind the eurozone's malaise. Strong growth in exports has not fed through into domestic demand in the way that would have been expected from the experience of previous cycles. Capital spending has grown modestly but consumer spending has barely moved, rising by just 0.2 per cent in both the second and third quarters.
Michael Dicks, economist at Lehman Brothers, says that traditional economic models for forecasting consumer behaviour have broken down: they no longer explain why so much is being saved rather than spent. His explanation is that the eurozone - especially Germany - is suffering the short-term side effects of the push towards structural reforms by governments and restructuring by companies, both with the aim of boosting longer term labour flexibility and international competitiveness.
Mr Dicks warns that the increase in "precautionary savings" by eurozone consumers "might become a permanent phenomenon if the authorities are seen reneging on the social contract and no longer deliver the sort of services that people have come to expect from the welfare state". John Lipsky, chief economist at JP Morgan, argues that the "corporate adjustment process" was much more "brusque" in the US, and was largely completed by the end of 2002. "In the eurozone, the corporate adjustment has not yet been completed."
...
The ECB is forecasting a “gradual recovery” in eurozone growth over the next two years. Mr Issing expects private consumption to pick up in line with real disposable incomes. Unemployment has stabilised and wages have increased moderately, he says. “This is all very modest but we would expect that the labour market would improve slowly. Our projections are based on this kind of scenario - not something spectacular.”
Financial Times
posted by CMT, 10:10 da manhã
