Futuríveis
terça-feira, dezembro 07, 2004
O Fim da Chamada Telefónica ?
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VONAGE, Skype, Net2Phone, 8X8—these are not exactly household names today. Time Warner and Verizon in America, and BT in Britain, by contrast, are almost universally known, if not always loved. What would happen if all of these firms—a band of specialised upstarts, the giant cable companies and the traditional telecoms titans—were to clash head-on in a global battle to provide a new communications technology that is certain to replace the one most commonly used today?
That is what is about to take place. According to Global Advertising Strategies, a marketing consultancy, “brand wars” will break out in the next six months, as the communications technology in question, called “voice over internet protocol” (VOIP), moves “from the early adopter to an early majority market stage”. The consequences of this migration—which, in effect, makes traditional telephone networks obsolete—are enormous.
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Will the cable and telco giants squash the specialist upstarts? Cyrus Mewawalla at Westhall Capital, an investment-advisory firm in London, suggests that the niche players, such as Vonage, unable to offer bundles of services, “will die out”. Yet the giants have their weaknesses too.
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Moreover, today almost all broadband connections in the world are fixed links provided either by telcos or cable companies. But in the next couple of years a handful of promising new wireless technologies, the best known of which is WiMax, will start to blanket large regions with broadband access over the airwaves.
This will be a huge boon to consumers, who will be able to bypass the broadband duopoly of cable and telecoms companies. It will also help the VOIP specialists by combining the benefits of VOIP with the convenience of wireless mobility (at least within regions with wireless broadband coverage). Vonage and others are already working with equipment vendors to make portable handsets based on short-range Wi-Fi technology, for use within homes and offices. These should be available next year. WiMax handsets could follow in 2006. If he can keep his lead until WiMax arrives, says Mr Citron, he could leave his cable and telco rivals in the dust.
Who will be the biggest losers? Not the fixed-line telcos, even though their revenues may fall by 25% by 2010 due to VOIP, according to Mr Mewawalla. The mobile operators are likely to be the big losers, with their revenues plunging by 80%. Together, VOIP and wireless broadband could fatally undermine their costly third-generation (3G) networks.
In short, VOIP upends the entire telecoms landscape. As consumers flock to make cheap calls over the internet, a whole industry must find ways to turn VOIP from a threat into an opportunity.
...
The Economist (requires subscription)
VONAGE, Skype, Net2Phone, 8X8—these are not exactly household names today. Time Warner and Verizon in America, and BT in Britain, by contrast, are almost universally known, if not always loved. What would happen if all of these firms—a band of specialised upstarts, the giant cable companies and the traditional telecoms titans—were to clash head-on in a global battle to provide a new communications technology that is certain to replace the one most commonly used today?
That is what is about to take place. According to Global Advertising Strategies, a marketing consultancy, “brand wars” will break out in the next six months, as the communications technology in question, called “voice over internet protocol” (VOIP), moves “from the early adopter to an early majority market stage”. The consequences of this migration—which, in effect, makes traditional telephone networks obsolete—are enormous.
...
Will the cable and telco giants squash the specialist upstarts? Cyrus Mewawalla at Westhall Capital, an investment-advisory firm in London, suggests that the niche players, such as Vonage, unable to offer bundles of services, “will die out”. Yet the giants have their weaknesses too.
...
Moreover, today almost all broadband connections in the world are fixed links provided either by telcos or cable companies. But in the next couple of years a handful of promising new wireless technologies, the best known of which is WiMax, will start to blanket large regions with broadband access over the airwaves.
This will be a huge boon to consumers, who will be able to bypass the broadband duopoly of cable and telecoms companies. It will also help the VOIP specialists by combining the benefits of VOIP with the convenience of wireless mobility (at least within regions with wireless broadband coverage). Vonage and others are already working with equipment vendors to make portable handsets based on short-range Wi-Fi technology, for use within homes and offices. These should be available next year. WiMax handsets could follow in 2006. If he can keep his lead until WiMax arrives, says Mr Citron, he could leave his cable and telco rivals in the dust.
Who will be the biggest losers? Not the fixed-line telcos, even though their revenues may fall by 25% by 2010 due to VOIP, according to Mr Mewawalla. The mobile operators are likely to be the big losers, with their revenues plunging by 80%. Together, VOIP and wireless broadband could fatally undermine their costly third-generation (3G) networks.
In short, VOIP upends the entire telecoms landscape. As consumers flock to make cheap calls over the internet, a whole industry must find ways to turn VOIP from a threat into an opportunity.
...
The Economist (requires subscription)
posted by CMT, 1:11 da manhã
