Futuríveis
quarta-feira, janeiro 05, 2005
FT.com - Martin Wolf: Turning upswing into sustained growth - six risks to the global economy
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In 2004, the economies of the members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development grew by some 3.6 per cent, a healthy improvement over 2.2 per cent in 2003 and 1.6 per cent in 2002. The US led the way, yet again, with an expansion forecast by the OECD secretariat at 4.4 per cent. Surprisingly, Japan managed 4 per cent. Less surprisingly, the UK achieved 3.2 per cent. Not at all surprisingly, the eurozone remained the laggard, on 1.8 per cent. Yet even this was a big improvement on a miserable 0.6 per cent in 2003.
Last year seems to have seen the fastest global economic growth for almost three decades. China, says the OECD, grew by 9.2 per cent last year. Brazil's gamble on orthodoxy seems to be paying off, with growth recovering to 4.5 per cent. Russia, buoyed by high oil prices, grew by more than 6 per cent.
That such a recovery has arrived in a world economy buffeted by the bursting of the high-technology bubble, terrorist attacks, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and soaring oil prices is testament to resilience. Particularly encouraging is the 9.5 per cent growth of world trade.
Yet the most important asset is credibly low inflation.
...
If we ignore further visitations from the four horsemen of the apocalypse, we need to focus on six risks, positive or negative.
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The first is oil prices.
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The second is the dollar.
...
The third is the prospects for demand in Japan and, above all, the eurozone.
...
The fourth risk is adjustment to the end of house-price booms in some high-income economies
...
The fifth risk is to the momentum of Chinese demand.
...
The last risk is to the sustainability of an open world economy.
FT.com / Comment & analysis / Columnists - Martin Wolf: Turning upswing into sustained growth
In 2004, the economies of the members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development grew by some 3.6 per cent, a healthy improvement over 2.2 per cent in 2003 and 1.6 per cent in 2002. The US led the way, yet again, with an expansion forecast by the OECD secretariat at 4.4 per cent. Surprisingly, Japan managed 4 per cent. Less surprisingly, the UK achieved 3.2 per cent. Not at all surprisingly, the eurozone remained the laggard, on 1.8 per cent. Yet even this was a big improvement on a miserable 0.6 per cent in 2003.
Last year seems to have seen the fastest global economic growth for almost three decades. China, says the OECD, grew by 9.2 per cent last year. Brazil's gamble on orthodoxy seems to be paying off, with growth recovering to 4.5 per cent. Russia, buoyed by high oil prices, grew by more than 6 per cent.
That such a recovery has arrived in a world economy buffeted by the bursting of the high-technology bubble, terrorist attacks, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and soaring oil prices is testament to resilience. Particularly encouraging is the 9.5 per cent growth of world trade.
Yet the most important asset is credibly low inflation.
...
If we ignore further visitations from the four horsemen of the apocalypse, we need to focus on six risks, positive or negative.
...
The first is oil prices.
...
The second is the dollar.
...
The third is the prospects for demand in Japan and, above all, the eurozone.
...
The fourth risk is adjustment to the end of house-price booms in some high-income economies
...
The fifth risk is to the momentum of Chinese demand.
...
The last risk is to the sustainability of an open world economy.
FT.com / Comment & analysis / Columnists - Martin Wolf: Turning upswing into sustained growth
posted by CMT, 11:55 da tarde
