Futuríveis
quarta-feira, janeiro 12, 2005
The Imagining the Internet Predictions Database
The Imagining the Internet Predictions Database examines the potential future of the Internet while simultaneously providing a peek back into its history. We invite you to navigate through three useful resource areas that: illuminate the views of stakeholders - The Experts Survey; give an historic overview - The 1990 to 1995 Predictions; and allow your participation - Share Your Vision Today.
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The Imagining the Internet Predictions Database
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Last September, the Pew Internet & American Life Project, a research organization in Washington, sent out a survey asking 24 questions about the future of the Internet to a wide range of technology specialists, scholars and industry leaders. Some 1,200 responded and, as you might expect, widespread agreement is hard to find.
Some of the more cherished notions of the Internet age - that it isolates people from real-world interaction, for instance, or that people use the Web to find reinforcement for their political views and filter out opposing ones - generate deeply divided views among the specialists. Some 42 percent of respondents agreed with the assertion that civic involvement will increase in the next 10 years as people seek and find organizations to join online; nearly 30 percent disagreed. Roughly 40 percent viewed the proliferation of online medical resources as a potential boon to health care management and access; 30 percent of the specialists thought that unlikely.
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Still, for investors, policy makers and others interested in getting a glimpse of what might be just over the horizon, there are hints to be had.
The survey results solidly confirm what media watchers may already know (and perhaps fear): that the Internet and the rise of the blogger are expected to drive greater change in the news media and publishing industries than in any other sector of society. Internet specialists also expect broad changes in education and working life, and 50 percent of respondents say they believe - despite all of the lawsuits filed by the recording and movie industries against online pirates - that the vast majority of Internet users will still be freely trading digital materials via anonymous networks by 2014.
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The New York Times > Technology > The Internet's Future? It Depends on Whom You Ask
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The Imagining the Internet Predictions Database
...
Last September, the Pew Internet & American Life Project, a research organization in Washington, sent out a survey asking 24 questions about the future of the Internet to a wide range of technology specialists, scholars and industry leaders. Some 1,200 responded and, as you might expect, widespread agreement is hard to find.
Some of the more cherished notions of the Internet age - that it isolates people from real-world interaction, for instance, or that people use the Web to find reinforcement for their political views and filter out opposing ones - generate deeply divided views among the specialists. Some 42 percent of respondents agreed with the assertion that civic involvement will increase in the next 10 years as people seek and find organizations to join online; nearly 30 percent disagreed. Roughly 40 percent viewed the proliferation of online medical resources as a potential boon to health care management and access; 30 percent of the specialists thought that unlikely.
...
Still, for investors, policy makers and others interested in getting a glimpse of what might be just over the horizon, there are hints to be had.
The survey results solidly confirm what media watchers may already know (and perhaps fear): that the Internet and the rise of the blogger are expected to drive greater change in the news media and publishing industries than in any other sector of society. Internet specialists also expect broad changes in education and working life, and 50 percent of respondents say they believe - despite all of the lawsuits filed by the recording and movie industries against online pirates - that the vast majority of Internet users will still be freely trading digital materials via anonymous networks by 2014.
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The New York Times > Technology > The Internet's Future? It Depends on Whom You Ask
posted by CMT, 12:39 da manhã
