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quinta-feira, junho 30, 2005
Philip Stephens: West blind to China’s problems
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To raise such issues, I acknowledge, is to pose questions without obvious answers. Who knows whether China’s Communist party can retain a monopoly on power in the face of rising prosperity and a fast-growing middle class? Scholars of China’s politics tend to doubt that the present Hukou system of citizen registration and entitlement, which rigidly defines the rights of individuals and buttresses the country’s social hierarchies, can survive intact the flight from the land to the cities. Logic would say that urban prosperity will greatly intensify demands for political participation. And if China does intend to be a global player, censoring the internet cannot shut out indefinitely the outside world.
The signs are that the existing leadership is awake to the strains. With customary diligence, party officials have been travelling extensively to see what, if anything, might be gleaned from western political models. Only this week, the Foreign Policy Centre in London hosted a seminar for a delegation studying Tony Blair’s third way politics. There were few hints of what they would take away from the presentations given by the British prime minister’s officials. But the visitors left the impression that this was part of a much wider search.
We can be sure, though, that everything else – from its economic power to the way it shapes strategic relationships with the rest of the world – depends on China’s success or otherwise in resolving these internal contradictions. The less confident the political leadership is at home, the more aggressively nationalist it is likely to be abroad. Perhaps it can adapt the status quo; perhaps there is indeed a Chinese third way; or possibly, the leadership will give way to pressure for greater pluralism.
Social unrest, growing income disparities or unexpected economic dislocation could force its hand. What does seem obvious is that we will only begin to understand the meaning of China’s rise if we have a stab at understanding how economics is transforming the political dynamics. It is time to rewrite the China speech.
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FT.com / Comment & analysis / Columnists - Philip Stephens: West blind to China’s problems
To raise such issues, I acknowledge, is to pose questions without obvious answers. Who knows whether China’s Communist party can retain a monopoly on power in the face of rising prosperity and a fast-growing middle class? Scholars of China’s politics tend to doubt that the present Hukou system of citizen registration and entitlement, which rigidly defines the rights of individuals and buttresses the country’s social hierarchies, can survive intact the flight from the land to the cities. Logic would say that urban prosperity will greatly intensify demands for political participation. And if China does intend to be a global player, censoring the internet cannot shut out indefinitely the outside world.
The signs are that the existing leadership is awake to the strains. With customary diligence, party officials have been travelling extensively to see what, if anything, might be gleaned from western political models. Only this week, the Foreign Policy Centre in London hosted a seminar for a delegation studying Tony Blair’s third way politics. There were few hints of what they would take away from the presentations given by the British prime minister’s officials. But the visitors left the impression that this was part of a much wider search.
We can be sure, though, that everything else – from its economic power to the way it shapes strategic relationships with the rest of the world – depends on China’s success or otherwise in resolving these internal contradictions. The less confident the political leadership is at home, the more aggressively nationalist it is likely to be abroad. Perhaps it can adapt the status quo; perhaps there is indeed a Chinese third way; or possibly, the leadership will give way to pressure for greater pluralism.
Social unrest, growing income disparities or unexpected economic dislocation could force its hand. What does seem obvious is that we will only begin to understand the meaning of China’s rise if we have a stab at understanding how economics is transforming the political dynamics. It is time to rewrite the China speech.
...
FT.com / Comment & analysis / Columnists - Philip Stephens: West blind to China’s problems
posted by CMT, 11:17 da tarde
