Futuríveis
domingo, maio 14, 2006
The Changing Face of China
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Mr Gittings is sceptical of the view that China's huge internal stresses—from dysfunctional banks to religious unrest—have pushed it to the verge of catastrophe. Yet his argument is hedged with sufficient caveats that the pessimist could still feel vindicated. “The Chinese miracle is a precarious one: the leadership...only has a few years to get it right,” he suggests. The leadership needs to initiate “serious reforms” of the political structure within this period. But the leadership Mr Gittings describes is one that has a congenital disinclination to reform itself.
The author's biggest concern is about the ravages to China's environment caused by breakneck industrial growth. Environmental degradation and rising pollution, he argues, represent a far more serious threat to the Chinese people than either political or economic instability. He even proposes a nightmare scenario in which China will run out of water. Mr Gittings is altogether too gloomy on this issue. Another, and in this reviewer's opinion, more likely, scenario is that China's huge environmental problems will cause widespread suffering. But they will also become part of the powerful cocktail of emerging challenges to an unreformed party that will force it to change the way it rules.
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Modern China | Fear of the future | Economist.com
Mr Gittings is sceptical of the view that China's huge internal stresses—from dysfunctional banks to religious unrest—have pushed it to the verge of catastrophe. Yet his argument is hedged with sufficient caveats that the pessimist could still feel vindicated. “The Chinese miracle is a precarious one: the leadership...only has a few years to get it right,” he suggests. The leadership needs to initiate “serious reforms” of the political structure within this period. But the leadership Mr Gittings describes is one that has a congenital disinclination to reform itself.
The author's biggest concern is about the ravages to China's environment caused by breakneck industrial growth. Environmental degradation and rising pollution, he argues, represent a far more serious threat to the Chinese people than either political or economic instability. He even proposes a nightmare scenario in which China will run out of water. Mr Gittings is altogether too gloomy on this issue. Another, and in this reviewer's opinion, more likely, scenario is that China's huge environmental problems will cause widespread suffering. But they will also become part of the powerful cocktail of emerging challenges to an unreformed party that will force it to change the way it rules.
...
Modern China | Fear of the future | Economist.com
posted by CMT, 7:40 da tarde
